Iran Analytica

The War to Win the Peace

Why Tehran Sees Diplomacy as a Contest Over Strategic Leverage

Jul 3 • Hamidreza Azizi

34

2

10

June 2026

The Ceasefire Trap

Tehran Believes Preserving its Leverage Requires More than Diplomacy

Jun 5 • Hamidreza Azizi

52

14

14

May 2026

Is a New Round of War Becoming Inevitable?

Tehran Expects a Different Kind of War

May 19 • Hamidreza Azizi

55

4

10

April 2026

Iran’s “No War, No Peace” Dilemma

An Unstable Equilibrium of Pressure and Diplomacy

Apr 26 • Hamidreza Azizi

31

3

7

Why Iran Won’t Give Up Hormuz

Iran’s Bid to Turn the Strait of Hormuz into Lasting Strategic Leverage

Apr 7 • Hamidreza Azizi

71

3

26

March 2026

How Iran Rewrote Its War Strategy

From Defensive Posture to Offensive Logic in a Regionalized War

Mar 25 • Hamidreza Azizi

61

4

15

How Mojtaba Khamenei Became the Supreme Leader

And What It Means for Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policy

Mar 11 • Hamidreza Azizi

34

3

8

February 2026

The War of Regime Change Has Begun

An Early Assessment of the U.S.-Israeli War Against Iran

Feb 28 • Hamidreza Azizi

36

9

19

The Man Who Would Be King

Ali Shamkhani and Iran’s Security-Managed Transition

Feb 16 • Hamidreza Azizi

37

4

6

All Roads Lead to Muscat

What Iran’s Preference for Oman Reveals About Its Mediation Playbook

Feb 5 • Hamidreza Azizi

25

6

January 2026

Is the Islamic Republic Ready for a War with the United States?

Deterrence, Preemption, and the Fragile Logic of Readiness

Jan 28 • Hamidreza Azizi

28

2

13

The Myth of an IRGC Coup

Succession, Militarization, and the Constraints on Power in Iran

Jan 19 • Hamidreza Azizi

45

5

10