Viewed from the perspective of the Persian Gulf monarchies, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz will turn them into Iranian vassals.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, built during the Iran-Iraq War at a cost of $5B, has a capacity of 7m bbd; 20m bbd transit the Strait of Hormuz. Clearly the cost of avoiding Iranian domination is well within the budgets available to the Persian Gulf monarchies.
Railroads to parallel the pipelines can then erase Iran's remaining geographic advantage.
Trump cannot allow Iran to control Hormuz. He would rather keep fighting than look like he capitulated…and Israel would be in for another round as well.
Unfortunately I would imagine Trump would never be willing to concede to Iran having any sort of scheme over the strait. I'm not sure what the alternative would be. I would think a more reasonable president would find it better that Iran's primary leverage for deterrence would be economic (the strait) and not military/nuclear. Although I more reasonable president wouldn't have entered this position in the first place.
Beyond the obvious humanitarian disaster, I'm not sure what trying for force Iran into being a failed state means for the strait. Does that just lead to the strait being mined and what military power that still exists working to keep the strait closed entirely?
Viewed from the perspective of the Persian Gulf monarchies, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz will turn them into Iranian vassals.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, built during the Iran-Iraq War at a cost of $5B, has a capacity of 7m bbd; 20m bbd transit the Strait of Hormuz. Clearly the cost of avoiding Iranian domination is well within the budgets available to the Persian Gulf monarchies.
Railroads to parallel the pipelines can then erase Iran's remaining geographic advantage.
Trump cannot allow Iran to control Hormuz. He would rather keep fighting than look like he capitulated…and Israel would be in for another round as well.
Unfortunately I would imagine Trump would never be willing to concede to Iran having any sort of scheme over the strait. I'm not sure what the alternative would be. I would think a more reasonable president would find it better that Iran's primary leverage for deterrence would be economic (the strait) and not military/nuclear. Although I more reasonable president wouldn't have entered this position in the first place.
Beyond the obvious humanitarian disaster, I'm not sure what trying for force Iran into being a failed state means for the strait. Does that just lead to the strait being mined and what military power that still exists working to keep the strait closed entirely?
By playing this card, Iran has raised the stakes to potentially catastrophic levels.