This is a great piece, the only thing I would add is that it appears as though Trump is further constrained from re-escalation by the Gulf states, whose appetite for any continued conflict is surely going to play a role in where this goes.
Can you say more about the possibility of an upwards rupture in the price of oil and how that turns the tables (imo) fairly abruptly in Iran’s favour? I don’t think we can count on inventories to continue buffering the world economy.
Great analysis. I think the Iranian leadership will have to ask themselves two questions: 1) While the consequences for the US economy have not been able to alter US strategy so far, at some point in the next three months they might well be. Do the Iranian economy and its allies in LBN have that time? 2) If the answer to 1) is no, what options are available to extend/shorten the two timelines (breakage of us blockade, closing bab-el-mandeb, striking gulf energy infrastructure for example) and would their respective consequences be worth it?
‘ U.S. Central Command has been quietly guiding commercial vessels through the Strait, with roughly 70 ships transiting over a three-week period’……😵💫 What is the evidence for that? A Centcom press briefing? 😂 C’mon, really?
Take a look at 'Moon of Alabama' today. (he actually linked to this article which is why I came across it.) There's usually something interesting with some of the comments often providing food for thought. That said, as he's reached a larger audience unfortunately there are more trolls & one line, often inane comments
Excellent analysis. 'The winner of any agreement is the one who uses its aftermath to better prepare for war'. The speed and quality of military technology design, manufacture and logistics upgrade in response to estimates of enemy capability revealed in each round of combat, may be a large factor in determining the length of and advantage gained in the gulf war. in a sense America and the Israel enclave have a wider range of resources to draw on for upgrade, but do they actually tap these to overall better effect? Maybe not, Iran in recent years appears to have upgraded combat capacity better and especially better focused on needs of the current conflict than the enemy. Land to surface missile capability would seem like a very important lever for Iran to upgrade, is it in reach?
This is a great piece, the only thing I would add is that it appears as though Trump is further constrained from re-escalation by the Gulf states, whose appetite for any continued conflict is surely going to play a role in where this goes.
Can you say more about the possibility of an upwards rupture in the price of oil and how that turns the tables (imo) fairly abruptly in Iran’s favour? I don’t think we can count on inventories to continue buffering the world economy.
Great analysis. I think the Iranian leadership will have to ask themselves two questions: 1) While the consequences for the US economy have not been able to alter US strategy so far, at some point in the next three months they might well be. Do the Iranian economy and its allies in LBN have that time? 2) If the answer to 1) is no, what options are available to extend/shorten the two timelines (breakage of us blockade, closing bab-el-mandeb, striking gulf energy infrastructure for example) and would their respective consequences be worth it?
MOA article is almost word for word, this one……..🤔
‘ U.S. Central Command has been quietly guiding commercial vessels through the Strait, with roughly 70 ships transiting over a three-week period’……😵💫 What is the evidence for that? A Centcom press briefing? 😂 C’mon, really?
Excellent thank you. Keep up great work
I was under the impression that Kuwaits airport was hit by an errant PAC3 missile interceptor. This is what did the majority of the damage I believe
Appreciate you helping me see what I’m clearly missing on my own!
Take a look at 'Moon of Alabama' today. (he actually linked to this article which is why I came across it.) There's usually something interesting with some of the comments often providing food for thought. That said, as he's reached a larger audience unfortunately there are more trolls & one line, often inane comments
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/06/war-on-iran-iran-needs-escalation-to-avoid-the-ceasefire-trap.html.
Excellent analysis. 'The winner of any agreement is the one who uses its aftermath to better prepare for war'. The speed and quality of military technology design, manufacture and logistics upgrade in response to estimates of enemy capability revealed in each round of combat, may be a large factor in determining the length of and advantage gained in the gulf war. in a sense America and the Israel enclave have a wider range of resources to draw on for upgrade, but do they actually tap these to overall better effect? Maybe not, Iran in recent years appears to have upgraded combat capacity better and especially better focused on needs of the current conflict than the enemy. Land to surface missile capability would seem like a very important lever for Iran to upgrade, is it in reach?