“In much the same way Egypt was the last country Britain faced as a superpower, so too do I think Iran will be the last one we face as number one.”
I was able to get an essay from a drone operator at Holloman about the present state of things (of course, more a meditation than actual policy details.)
The real strategic transition is from retaliation to cost-curve manipulation.
Under asymmetry, Iran cannot outmatch superior force directly, so it is trying to alter the adversary’s calculus by regionalizing the battlefield and targeting the infrastructure that underwrites escalation.
except that unlike terrorists, Iran actually has to govern the country. And many in Iran are far from happy about this state of affairs. Barring complete capitulation on the part of the United States, the most likely outcome, besides a return to war, is a situation where the sanctions remain, tit for tat flare ups occur, Hezbollah continues to be degraded and the world figures put how to get oil through the gulf using a convoy system. When Iran starts firing on Japanese and European vessels we will see what happens.
Good analysis. Iran’s shift to attrition and regional pressure shows the war is becoming systemic, not just military. When Hormuz, energy flows, and markets become part of the strategy, the likely outcome is not victory but a prolonged, controlled stalemate shaped by bargaining power.
“In much the same way Egypt was the last country Britain faced as a superpower, so too do I think Iran will be the last one we face as number one.”
I was able to get an essay from a drone operator at Holloman about the present state of things (of course, more a meditation than actual policy details.)
https://nathankyoung.substack.com/p/finding-remote-work-as-a-drone-operator?r=2kp7ol
The real strategic transition is from retaliation to cost-curve manipulation.
Under asymmetry, Iran cannot outmatch superior force directly, so it is trying to alter the adversary’s calculus by regionalizing the battlefield and targeting the infrastructure that underwrites escalation.
except that unlike terrorists, Iran actually has to govern the country. And many in Iran are far from happy about this state of affairs. Barring complete capitulation on the part of the United States, the most likely outcome, besides a return to war, is a situation where the sanctions remain, tit for tat flare ups occur, Hezbollah continues to be degraded and the world figures put how to get oil through the gulf using a convoy system. When Iran starts firing on Japanese and European vessels we will see what happens.
The future will be managed instability as I wrote it last month. https://vizierprime.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-iran-war-will-not?r=4xpgjx&utm_medium=ios
Good analysis. Iran’s shift to attrition and regional pressure shows the war is becoming systemic, not just military. When Hormuz, energy flows, and markets become part of the strategy, the likely outcome is not victory but a prolonged, controlled stalemate shaped by bargaining power.